One Man’s Take on Super Bowl 46
AHH The Super Bowl, with two weeks in between Conference Championship games it’s the most over-analyzed game in sports…so what’s one more prediction.
To me this game is pretty cut and dry, like most games this post-season the team that creates more pressure on the opposing quarterback wins. In the 10 playoff games thus far the team that had more sacks is 6-4 (if the Texans and 49ers got sub-par QB performances the record would be 8-2), and with these two QB’s the need to put pressure on them is much greater. Just look at Eli Manning’s performance against the Packers compared to his game against the 49ers: in one instance he could stand there all day like the Statue of Liberty, the next you can’t remember if ever NOT being on his back.
The Giants front four has been well documented, with JPP, Osi, Tuck and Co. wreaking havoc in opposing backfields throughout this playoff push. However, Big Blue has shown it’s Achilles heal with that overwhelming stat:
The Giants have just 4 sacks this season when opposing offenses line up in a 2 Tight End set.
Hmmmm. That sounds somewhat familiar. Which team was it again, that frequently demolishes opposing defenses with this exact offensive set? Ohhhhh yeaaaa, the Patriots! There is just one problem. Yo Soy Fiesta’s ankle.
The Patriots success in this formation all depends on Rob Gronkowski playing (realistically is that even a question), and them actually keeping him and Aaron Hernandez lined up tight which they rarely do. But the beauty of having those two is the match-up nightmares they can create because of their athleticism, for example they can split Hernandez wide and keep Gronkowski and another Tight End on the Offensive Line creating the formation that gives the Giants problems.
The reason the Giants struggle to sack the QB against a two Tight End formation is because:
- the tight end can stay in as an extra blocker
- they can “chip” the defensive end as they are releasing for their pass route and
- an extra offensive lineman forces defensive ends to line up about a yard further outside making the route to the QB a wee bit longer, and in the NFL a half a step is a huge difference.
Just because the Patriots have the capabilities to line up with two Tight Ends more often than other teams doesn’t mean they’ll win the game. I’m just merely pointing out an advantage they have in a game that the Giants appear to have more of. But if the Patriots can use that formation successfully and get this game into more of a shootout, they lost in the regular season 24-20 and in Super Bowl 42 17-14, than I like their chances of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
And since everyone seems to be picking the Giants I’ll pick the Patriots 35-31, which means absolutely nothing just like the Madden simulation or whatever logo an animal eats their treat off of.
Alright I’ve shown you mine, now show me yours…
About rklennert
Interesting analysis; I hadn’t considered how the Giants struggle when they face to tight ends. Really liked your article on how Indianapolis was doing hosting the Super Bowl.
I invite you to read my thoughts on the game: http://derekjohnson05.wordpress.com/2012/02/03/giants-vs-patriots-why-is-nothing-coming-to-my-mind-again-come-back-sunday-to-find-out/